MSNBC is Manipulating Numbers to try and Deflate John McCain Voters, here is the Statistical Proof.

From what I have read, Barack Obama is absolutely positively going to win California, New York, and Illinois. These three states comprise 22.5 % of all voters. Assuming a current lead for Barack Obama of 8 percentage points, the bigger the current polling margin of victory for Barack Obama in California, New York, and Illinois, the better for John McCain in the remaining 47 states!

Yes, up is down, and down is up.

Lets say that Barack Obama has an overall 8 percentage point lead in national polling of all the states. Lets also say that Barack Obama is leading in California, New York and Illinois by 20%. That means that in the remaining 47 states Barack Obama is only leading by 2.5% of the vote.

But what If the lead in California, New York, and Illinois is even bigger but Barack Obama's overall lead is still 8 percentage points? What if the lead in these three states is actually 33%, then in the remaining 47 states, the two candidates are basically tied in the popular vote!

While it is possible that Barack Obama could win in a landslide, it is also possible that John McCain could win several key states by a very small amount each, and in the process actually win the nomination even while losing the popular vote by several million votes.

What MSNBC is desperately trying to do is demoralize the John McCain base so they don't even bother showing up to vote.

The race is close enough for John McCain to still win, it's just the liberal media trying to get you to give up and not vote that might make Barack Obama a landslide winner instead of a very, very close, loser who wins the popular vote by a few million while losing the electoral college vote to John McCain.

How the MSNBC led media continues to manipulate math to make it seem like Barack Obama is too far ahead of John McCain.

MSNBC keeps citing national polls that show Barack Obama up by 12 or 13 percentage points. There is a definite misleading nature to this type of polling. Barack Obama may be hugely ahead in a few big states, like Illinois, New York and California, but that is not necessary the best of news for Barack Obama.

If Barack Obama has a huge lead in Illinois, New York and California, that may just be inflating the national polling numbers while meaning nothing in all of the closer races in the remaining states. Sure I'd rather be the candidate that that leads in New York, California and Illinois, and is neck and neck in the total vote of the other 47 races, but this is an electoral race, and a bigger lead in California, Illnois, and New York does not net Barack Obama any additional electoral college votes versus barely winning in those same three states.

It would appear that the way for John McCain to win is to barely win in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Barack Obama could poll 10 points higher among the six large states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, California, New York and Illinois, but still end up splitting those six states.

If you want to get a truer sense of the overall race, the top five vote getting states of each candidate should be thrown out entirely, then poll the remaining 40 states to get a better sense of each candidates overall popularity. However, even then, if John McCain keeps eeking out 50-49% victories while Barack Obama has a couple of 66-33% victories, John McCain will actually do MUCH MUCH better in an electoral college race than in the national polls that simply poll for overall popularity.

However, the problem is the media itself is trying to use huge leads for Barack Obama in three large states to imply that the presidential race is already over. I actually wouldn't feel sorry about now if the MSNBC news headquarters blew a few fuses so we wouldn't have to hear their pro Barack Obama rant spewed fortg as fact, and in the process actually continue to unfairly manipulate the race.

What is a Mini Delegate and why this Label is needed.

2008 Election Results

and I have been in a give and take the past week or so. I come up with a hypothesis, their site updates the relevant stats, then I check if my hypothesis is on target. Excellent synergy, thank you!

So far in this years elections ( thru March 26, 2008), the primary states have averaged 11,009 votes for each delegate that has been selected. In the caucus states it only takes 1,304 voters for each delegate that has been selected. Besides the huge reduction in numbers that a caucus state requires to select each delegate, caucuses are very limited as to when one can vote, lack of privacy when voting vote, and inevitably those who are the loudest and most passionate can either manipulate, overpower, or simply scare off others who don't believe in this method of "voting". Entire demographic groups can be alienated or at the very least shunted in a caucus setting.

Since the term Super Delegates has already come into play, I think it is appropriate that the term Mini-Delegate be used in all states that use caucuses to select their delegates. A mini delegate is not a derogatory term, it is an accurate term that puts in focus the fact that 88% LESS voters have been required for each delegate that has been selected.

The significance of the term mini-delegate better helps analyze delegate statistics. The term mini delegate can now have its own header on statistical charts and thereby allow everybody to better understand the true breakdown in how the delegate votes have been selected. This data becomes critical when it comes to evaluating how each presidential candidate is doing.

When Voters get all day to Vote, Hillary Clinton wins every which way the votes are counted.

When Voters get all day to Vote, Hillary Clinton wins every which way the votes are counted.

Caucuses have been underscrutinized in this years democratic political process. It's pretty obvious that bullying and other tactics that favored the younger crowd went on in many if not all of the caucuses. The News Media's failure to investigate and expose this travesty of the voting process has just been one more hurdle Hillary Clinton has had to unfairly face.

The biggest problem with the caucuses is that they require voters to be at a certain place and time to have their voice possibly heard, assuming the voter isn't being harrassed or misinformed by someone "in charge". This voting method, called caucusing, (or caca cussing), is not used in November to elect our president, and therein lies my concern.

In the actual presidential election, a voter has all day to vote, a full 12 hour period if I am not mistaken. When I tabulate the delegate counts in all states that allowed their citizens a full day to vote, aka primaries instead of caucuses, Hillary Clinton has 1,325 delegates, Barrack Obama has 1,305.

This is not counting MICHIGAN or FLORIDA!

The lead in the electoral college vote among states that actually allow their constituents all day to vote is close to a hundred Electoral College votes in favor of Hillary Clinton, 219 to 128, and this again is without counting Florida, Michigan or Pennsylvania! This is a landslide of epic porportions that NOBODY in the media will address.

If Hillary Clinton makes this fact known, that she is clobbering Barrack Obama when a state's constituents actually get all day to vote, the media will once again accuse Hillary Clinton of trying to change how the votes are counted even though this is the exact method that will be used in November to elect our president! So how come the media can't do a better job of analyzing what really matters? How come the news media has done next to nothing reporting about the inequities that go along with caca cussing? Chris Matthews, care to address this?

I'm proud of americans that caucus and wear their political beliefs on their shoulders for everyone to see, and bump into. But at some point, what I really value MORE is the vote that happens in the privacy of the voting booth and in the comfort zone of a full days chance to exercise that vote. In that scenario, Hillary wins every which way the numbers are counted, and that's the exact same way the votes get counted in November, no caca cussing allowed.